Development of theoretical models for estimating hydrokinetic turbine strike probability and survival

The potential for fish to be injured or killed during passage through hydrokinetic turbines is a major issue that must be addressed at sites being developed for this type of power generation.  Similar to low head conventional hydropower, blade strike is expected to be the primary source of injury for most hydrokinetic turbine designs.   To address this issue, we developed theoretical models for predicting the probability of blade strike and mortality for two types of hydrokinetic turbines.  These probability models were developed using the same approach that has been established for predicting damage to fish passing through conventional hydro turbines.  For the two hydrokinetic turbine designs being considered, we will present estimated strike probabilities and turbine passage survival rates for a range of current velocities (and corresponding turbine rotational speeds) and fish lengths.  The results of this study will be of great value to address concerns that hydrokinetic turbines may have potential to kill large numbers of fish.  Laboratory studies are also being conducted with each turbine design and will be used to verify theoretical calculations and, if needed, modify the probability models to more accurately reflect the risk of blade strike for fish that encounter hydrokinetic turbines.