Meteorological Effects on Yellow Perch Recruitment in Lake Erie

Climate change is expected to alter numerous abiotic and biotic variables that are likely to influence fish recruitment. Before the response of fisheries to climate change can be predicted, however, we first must understand the mechanisms by which climate change can directly and indirectly affect fish populations. In Lake Erie, recent investigations have suggested the importance of several climate-influenced meteorological variables to yellow perch (Perca flavescens) year-class strength (an early predictor of recruitment to the fishery), including winter temperature, precipitation-driven tributary inflows, and temperature- and precipitation-driven hypolimnetic hypoxia. Using historical indices of yellow perch year-class strength, meteorological conditions, and two measures of stock size (total egg production, spawning stock biomass) in a multivariable model-building exercise, we sought to explain past (1987-2010) recruitment variation in western and central Lake Erie’s yellow perch populations. We found a positive effect of long winters in both western and central Lake Erie populations.  Additionally, in western Lake Erie, where conditions are heavily influenced by the large rivers flowing into it, we saw a positive effect of high river discharge in the spring.  We found no support for including stock-recruit relationships in models, suggesting yellow perch populations in Lake Erie are driven largely by meteorological processes.