Impacts of Land Development and Climate Change on Lake Superior's North Shore Trout Habitat

The North Shore region of Lake Superior from Duluth to Grand Portage, MN has over 150 designated trout streams. Both land development and climate change are expected to impact aquatic habitat (flow, temperature) in North Shore streams. To develop long-term strategies to address these impacts, the goals of the project described here are to characterize the current hydrology and stream temperature regimes of North Shore streams, forecast future streamflow and temperature regimes based on expected changes in land use and in climate, and relate these changes in flow and temperature to trout habitat.  A combination of deterministic and empirical hydrologic and stream temperature models are under development based on available historical flow, water temperature, and climate data, with emphasis on the upland wetland systems that provide much of the baseflow for these streams. These models will be used to project future stream conditions using available GCM climate projections and future land use projections. Physical habitat models will then be used to assess the impacts of climate and land use change on regional trout populations, with emphasis on Coaster Brook and Steelhead trout.