Modeling Plumes and Blooms: Connecting Land-Use and Climate Change to Fish Growth in the Maumee Bay, Lake Erie

Land use and climate change can affect aquatic ecosystems by altering sediment and nutrient transport in a way that reduces water clarity. The sediment plumes and algal blooms that result from increased inputs and higher temperatures can alter the growth, and ultimately the recruitment, of visually foraging fish species, such as the yellow perch (Perca flavescens). We used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and an Individual Based Model (IBMs) to link changes in land use and climate in the Maumee River watershed to growth of age-0 yellow perch in Maumee Bay, Lake Erie. In our models, increasing urbanization significantly reduced yellow perch growth by altering the timing and intensity of sediment plumes, particularly during the juvenile phase, but only at very high levels of urbanization, likely due to the influence of non-point source agricultural runoff in the Maumee basin. Modeled climate change reduce d age-0 yellow perch growth, primarily because increased water temperatures promoted earlier onset, and longer duration of algal blooms. Our results link important terrestrial and aquatic processes, and show that alterations in a watershed have the potential to significantly alter the growth of a visually foraging fish species.