A Model Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Incorporating Pheromone-Baited Trapping Techniques into an Integrated Pest Management Program of Great Lakes Sea Lamprey

Applying a mating pheromone component to traps has been found to enhance trap capture of invasive Great Lakes sea lamprey. Management-scale tests have yielded valuable data on the cost and efficacy of pheromone-enhanced trapping as a potential control method. We utilized this information in a management strategy evaluation model, which explicitly accounts for uncertainty about population dynamics and effectiveness of management tactics. The model defined conditions under which integrating pheromone-enhanced trapping with lampricide applications (current control method and status quo) is expected to be cost-effective. Specifically, we evaluated pheromone-enhanced trapping methods as either baiting existing barrier-integrated traps (standard trapping) or combining standard trapping with additional baited traps meant to intercept sea lampreys moving away from existing traps (reverse-intercept trapping). Using our “worst-case” estimates of cost and efficacy of pheromone-enhanced trapping, an integrated strategy of lampricide applications and pheromone-enhanced trapping on fourteen streams in Lake Michigan resulted in increases (~ 3 to 8.9%) in the Lake’s mean number of spawning-phase sea lamprey relative to status quo control. Using our most optimistic estimates of cost and efficacy of pheromone-enhanced trapping resulted in decreases (~ 10 to 14%) in the Lake’s mean number of spawning-phase sea lamprey relative to status quo.