Fishvis: A Regional Decision Support Tool to Map the Response of Riverine Fish to Climate Change in the US Great Lakes Region

Climate change is expected to alter distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the coming century, in part due to altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to help understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Predictive models were developed to estimate occurrence for 13 fish species distributed across the Great Lakes Basin and that represent the range of thermal guilds (cold to warm). Presently, cold-water species occupy between 55,000 km (15%) to 130,000 km (35%); cool-water, between 33,000 km (9%) to 215,000 km (58%); and warm-water species between 33,000 km (9%) and 141,000 km (38%) of streams across the region. Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models predict that in the mid- to late 21^st century suitable habitats will decline as much as 86% for all cold- (n= 4) and four of five cool-water species, and will increase as much as 33% for all warm-water species (n=4). “FishVis”, a web-based decision-support mapping application was developed to visualize, query, and download the results of these predicted climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.