Climate Change Projections for Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) Recruitment in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior

Lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) is an ecologically, culturally, and economically important species in the Laurentian Great Lakes.  Lake Whitefish have been a staple food source for thousands of years and, since 1980, have supported the most economically valuable (annual catch value ≈ US$16.6 million) and productive (annual harvest ≈ 15 million lbs.) commercial fishery in the upper Great Lakes (Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior).  Climate change, specifically change in temperature, wind, and ice cover, is expected to impact the ecology, production dynamics, and value of this fishery, because recruitment to the fishery has been linked with these climatic factors.  We used linear regression to determine the relationship between fall and spring temperature indices, fall wind speed, winter ice cover, and Lake Whitefish recruitment in 13 management units located in the 1836 Treaty Waters, a culturally and commercially important region for Lake Whitefish.  Corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion comparisons indicated that selected climate variables significantly improved model fit in eight of the 13 management units evaluated.  Isolating the climate-recruitment relationship and projecting recruitment using the Coupled Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Research Model (CHARM) suggested increased Lake Whitefish recruitment in the majority of the 1836 Treaty Waters management units given projected changes in climate.