The Contribution of Wild Fisheries to Food Security Around Lake Victoria, and the Rising Challenge of Aquaculture

The inland fisheries of Lake Victoria are an important source of food and income to millions of people. Recently, catch of the largest fishery, Nile perch, has stagnated while catch per unit effort has declined. Meanwhile, the human population within 5 km of the lakeshore has increased 85% since 2000. The inevitable increase in fish demand driven by population growth and employment pressure is contributing to a dramatic increase in tilapia aquaculture in Uganda and Kenya. Most aquaculture occurs in ponds dug near the lake, but increasingly the efficacy of cages of tilapia floated directly in the lake is being tested. We discuss the contribution of the major fisheries in Lake Victoria to regional food security (via protein consumption) and income security (via export earnings and local markets). Finally, we use an input-output socio-economic model, the International Futures model, to estimate the total fish production that will be required to maintain current levels of per capita fish consumption in the Lake Victoria basin under scenarios of future population growth. The wild fisheries of Lake Victoria are a vital ecosystem service, and their continued sustainability must be viewed in light of the increasing move toward aquaculture in the region.