Niagara River Lake Sturgeon Catch Standardization and Monitoring Power Analysis

The lake sturgeon is a threatened species in the state of New York and the province of Ontario, and resource managers in these jurisdictions are currently working toward the recovery of this species. Whether the goal is to evaluate current status relative to delisting criteria, or to evaluate potential re-opening of commercial or recreational fisheries, an effective population monitoring program is essential to inform management decision-making. Assessment of the lower Niagara River lake sturgeon population has occurred since 2010, centered on catch rates using baited set lines in river and lake habitats near the river mouth. The goal is to make recommendations for continued monitoring of this population at optimal levels of fishing effort. We compared a series of statistical catch standardization models in a generalized linear model framework to account for the effects of environmental variables on catch rates as an index of relative abundance. We then assessed the power to detect trends in abundance at a range of potential rates of population change under a series of hypothetical monitoring regimes by simulating variability in our catch rates over time using our best fitting model. Results will inform the design of future lake sturgeon monitoring efforts for this population.