Short, Warm Winters Negatively Affect Yellow Perch Perca Flavescens Reproduction and Recruitment

Although climate warming is expected to benefit temperate (cool-water) fishes by lengthening the spring through fall growing season, declines in reproductive success following short, warm winters may counter such positive effects. Additionally, much is still to be learned about how shifts in timing of the winter-to-spring transition, and the corresponding shortening of winter can affect the highly evolved seasonal physiology and life-histories of temperate fishes. Herein, we used long-term monitoring data (1973-2010), field collections of spawners (2010-2012), and laboratory experimentation to test the hypothesis that short, warm winters would negatively affect Lake Erie Yellow Perch Perca flavescens recruitment by 1) disrupting reproductive development (i.e., gametogenesis) and 2) altering spring spawning phenology. Our analyses revealed that failed year-classes consistently followed short, warm winters in western and central Lake Erie. Experimentation and field investigation also demonstrated that short winters caused females to spawn at warmer temperatures and produce smaller eggs that both hatched at lower rates and produced smaller larvae than females exposed to long winters. Ultimately, our research offers a novel mechanism to explain past Lake Erie Yellow Perch recruitment variation, as well as how continued climate warming may threaten other temperate species that have a similar physiology and life-history.