Northeast Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment: First Implementation of a National Methodology

Fisheries of the Northeast U.S. shelf have been impacted by climate change and these impacts will continue into the foreseeable future. These impacts raise numerous challenges for scientists, managers, and fishermen. To provide an initial overview of climate vulnerability of northeast U.S. fisheries, the NMFS Methodology for Assessing the Vulnerability of Marine Fish Stocks to a Changing Climate was implemented in the Northeast U.S. Shelf ecosystem. The Assessment included 79 species of finfish, elasmobranchs, and shellfish.  The methodology used expert opinion to evaluate a species exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Exposure was determined using climate models developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and compiled by scientists at the NOAA OAR Earth Systems Laboratory (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc/). Species sensitivity was determined using previously published studies and expert opinion. The results indicate that in the Northeast region, exposure to climate change will be moderately high to high. Sensitivity of species ranged from low to high. In general, diadromous and shellfish species were estimated to have relatively high vulnerability and pelagic and groundfish species were estimated to have relatively low vulnerability. Implications of the results and utility of the methodology will be discussed.