Assessing the Cumulative Effects of Potential Industrial Facility Emissions on Aquatic Ecosystems in the Kitimat Airshed

Numerous liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities as well as an oil refinery and a crude oil export terminal have been proposed for the Kitimat area, which  place urgent demands upon regulatory decision-making processes. These demands led the BC Ministry of Environment to sponsor a rapid, scoping-level assessment of the potential cumulative effects on the environment and human health from nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide emissions under 12 alternative future scenarios of industrial development. I’ll summarize the overall structure of the assessment, and then focus on the portion of the study dealing with impacts to aquatic ecosystems, summarizing both the current condition of 80 sampled lakes, and the range of possible futures using three steady state models. Key insights raised by this assessment include:  the benefits of a regional cumulative effects assessment (as opposed to separate environmental assessments by proponents); the important effects of organic acids and chloride in affecting the acid-base chemistry of coastal lakes in the Kitimat area; the relative impact of sulphur vs. nitrogen deposition in potential acidification of these systems; the effects of using different metrics in determining risk; and the important role of policy makers in determining risk thresholds.