Evaluation of Reference Point Performance for Atlantic Menhaden Using Management Strategy Evaluation

Atlantic menhaden are a schooling forage fish, critical ecosystem component, and are harvested by the largest fishery on the Atlantic coast.  The recent stock assessment for the species classifies the stock as not overfished and overfishing not occurring.  Relative risks of biological reference points (BRPs) are not well known and guidance from successful management of other forage species is limited.  Our objective was to compare relative risks of BRPs under consideration for Atlantic menhaden.  A management strategy evaluation (MSE) was performed and included a full management feedback.  A statistical catch-at-age model was used with management interjected at different intervals during the projections.  We simulated management under spawner per recruit (SPR) based BRPs and compared risks between scenarios using stock status indicators of fishing mortality rate and fecundity.  While using SPR-based reference points we explored the risks associated with the time frame over which life history parameters were averaged for BRP calculations.  Risks of management actions will be dependent upon risks that managers are willing to face.  Whether regime changes are part of the population history dictates the time frame over which life history parameters should be calculated.  Ultimately, a MSE will allow for more informed management decisions across BRP options.