The Evolution of Addressing Risk and Uncertainty through Annual Catch Limits

Following the 2006 reauthorization of the Magnuson Stevens Act, councils and their management partners responded rapidly to comply with the mandate to set annual catch limits (ACLs) for all managed fisheries. The achievement of this ambitious mandate was supported by considerable developments on both scientific and management fronts; diverse policies, processes, and tools are used to set reference points, account for scientific and management uncertainty, and incorporate considerations of risk. Now, several years after the original implementation of ACLs, councils are reflecting on their experience, revisiting their approaches and considering how to integrate risk and uncertainty in strategic ways.

This presentation will highlight some of the approaches that councils have used to characterize uncertainty and account for risk, and track the evolution of dialogue around these topics. The original application of and subsequent revisions to these approaches demonstrate that risk policies are not static and will evolve over time. Similarly, managers and scientists are developing deeper understandings of uncertainty, and the conceptual and procedural incorporation of risk is becoming increasingly more textured. Councils are exploring ways to leverage their risk policies and control rules as a pathway to address broader management objectives, articulate optimum yield, and frame tradeoff decisions.