A Quantitative Life Cycle Model for Chinook Salmon in Battle Creek, CA

The purpose of the Coleman National Fish Hatchery (CNFH) Adaptive Management Plan (AMP) is to acknowledge, identify, study, and evaluate uncertainties regarding the operation of a large-scale fish hatchery in a watershed being restored for natural salmonid populations. An integrated AMP requires an analytical framework which includes and accounts for factors directly related to CNFH operations, as well as other factors which may influence the successful recovery of salmonid stocks. Therefore, a quantitative life cycle model was developed to clarify underlying assumptions, incorporate uncertainties, and connect management options to desired outcomes. The life cycle model tracks the complete life history of all four runs of Chinook salmon present in the Battle Creek Watershed, beginning with spawning in the CNFH (hatchery-origin) or Battle Creek (natural-origin). This model configuration allows for evaluation of CNFH and BCRP project effects on each individual Chinook salmon life stage and the overall cumulative impact on the population trajectories of each run. During our talk we will present results of an analysis examining the effect of numerous management issues identified in the CNFH AMP on projected abundance of all 4 races of Chinook salmon.  We will also discuss model limitations and uncertainties, and describe future modeling tasks.