Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Use on the Spread of Aquatic Invasive Species in Ontario, Canada

Changing climatic conditions will likely affect the dispersal and establishment of aquatic invasive species (AIS). Using a suite of IPCC AR5 projections (Rcp2.6 to Rcp8.5), we conducted risk assessments of potential fish species dispersal and establishment across Ontario, Canada. These risk assessments focused on key fish species that are established in the Great Lakes basin (e.g. Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus)), species of special concern such as Northern Snakehead (Channa argus), and indicator fish species representing potential invaders from each thermal guild (i.e. warm, cool and cold water species). Risks for each species were based from combined assessments of water temperature suitability to support fish survival, reproduction and growth along with the likelihood of human-assisted fish introductions. The likelihood of human-assisted fish introductions was based on a human use model that predicted water-body specific recreational fishing activity from data characterizing the attractiveness and accessibility of water-bodies. The analysis was conducted at a reasonably-fine spatial resolution (60 km² grid) for for Ontario and for short (by 2040), medium (by 2070) and long (by 2100) time frames. These predicted futures permitted a deeper understanding of the vulnerability of different areas of Ontario to climate-moderated effects of aquatic invasive fish species.