Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab: Stock Assessment and Environmental Change

Management of blue crab in Chesapeake Bay has been based on advice from formal stock assessments since 1997.  In the intervening decade these assessments have become increasingly sophisticated, currently incorporating both sex and stage structure into the model.  However, these assessments have yet to evaluate the potential of environmental change to affect management advice.  Here we present results of temperature effects on overwintering behavior, coastwide synchronization of population dynamics suggesting a role of climate forcing and the impacts of ocean acidification on growth.  Together these three factors have the potential to dramatically alter the structure and results of future assessment models and management approaches.  Population projection modeling suggests lack of overwintering will increase both r and limit reference points, whereas acidification will counteract these effects.  Understanding the pattern and magnitude of environmental impacts on blue crab will be critical to ensure sustainable fisheries in the future.