Ecological and Management Implications of Climate Change Induced Shifts in Phenology of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species in the Northeast Region

Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. This project seeks to improve our understanding of climate-induced shifts in the seasonal timing of migration, spawning or breeding, and rates of biological development in coastal fishes, marine mammals, and migratory shore and seabirds along the U.S Atlantic coast. Long-term biological observations and environmental monitoring data are being collected to evaluate the spatial and temporal scales at which phenological shifts are occurring, the primary environmental variables driving them, and to identify shared traits or behavioral changes that are common among different species. Comparisons of phenological shifts among higher trophic level predators and marine forage species will help characterize the adaptive capacity and vulnerability of individual species and regional sub-populations to changing environmental conditions.  It will also identify where potential trophic mismatches may occur due to rapid climate change, and reveal gaps in monitoring networks intended to detect such responses among species of commercial, ecological, and conservation importance.