Climate Change Vulnerability and Brook Trout Conservation in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

We developed an interactive decision support tool for identifying brook trout conservation priorities in the Chesapeake Bay watershed.  The tool begins with a boosted regression tree occupancy model, which is used to quantify current fishery conditions, underlying habitat value, and anthropogenic stress from mining, urbanization, and agriculture.  We then use downscaled climate change predictions of precipitation and stream water temperature to calculate expected changes in brook trout habitat quality and population status throughout the bay watershed in years 2042, 2062, and 2087.  In combination, these results provide a powerful tool for identifying both present-day restoration piorities, as well as areas of high protection priorty within the context of a future climate.  All of this information, was then built into an interactive tool that can be used to visualize current and future conditions and facilitate brook trout conservation planning at the scale of both whole watersheds and individual stream segments.