Assessing Climate Impacts Based on Observed Fish Responses to Stream Temperature and Flow Metrics

Sievert, Nicholas

Assessing Climate Impacts Based on Observed Fish Responses to Stream Temperature and Flow Metrics

Monday, August 22, 2016: 10:20 AM

Empire C (Sheraton at Crown Center)

Nicholas Sievert , USGS Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Columbia, MO

Yin-Phan Tsang , Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Landsing, MI

Wesley Daniel, PhD , Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI

Craig P. Paukert , Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, USGS Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Columbia, MO

Dana M. Infante, PhD , Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI

Joanna Whittier , Department of Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Kyle Herreman , Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI

Jana Stewart , Wisconsin Water Science Center, USGS – WI Science Center, Middleton, WI

Climate change is expected to alter the temperature and flow regimes of streams in the midwestern and northeastern United States. Alterations to stream temperature and flow are likely to impact the composition and function of stream fish communities. In order to provide managers with a more complete picture of how streams are likely to change we developed a set of stream classes based on fish species which are sensitive to temperature and flow metrics. Indicator analysis was used to identify species which had either a positive or negative response to a set of temperature and flow metrics calculated from USGS gage station data. This information allowed us to develop sensitive species groups. Stream classes were developed using these species groups as response variables and climate and natural variables as predictors using multivariate regression trees. This information was used to assign stream classes to all stream segments within the 22 state Northeast Climate Science Center region under both current and predicted future climate conditions, allowing us to identify areas where streams are expected to change class in the future. This information can be used to help managers identify critical areas for stream fish conservation in the face of a changing climate.