Do Fish Drive Recreational Fishing Licence Sales?

Management agencies need to understand factors that influence fishing participation and licence purchases. While individual traits such as gender can influence recreational fishers’ decisions, a fundamental gap remains in understanding the influence of catch-related fishing quality on these decisions. We evaluated the use of catch (fish density) and non-catch-related factors (population density, gender, and ethnicity, accessible water area) to explain variation in 2014 resident fishing licence rates across 510 origins in Ontario, Canada. Licence rates were higher in areas with lower population density and better quality catch-related fishing, and among populations with stronger representation by males and ethnic majorities. From simulated future scenarios, we predicted that resident licence sales could increase by 15 and 25% if fish density increased by 30% and 54% in northeastern and southern Ontario, respectively. However, licence sales could decrease by 6% with a 30% redistribution of rural residents to a major urban area. The relationship between licence rates and non-catch-related factors confirms the role of urbanization on recreational fishing participation, while catch-related factors provide support for a functional response by fishers to fish.