Combating the Disconnect Between Acutal and Paid Participation: A Model to Predict License Purchase Based on Angler Behavior and Characteristics

An angler may purchase a fishing license but not actually participate in that activity; this is a discrepancy between paid and actual participation.  For example, previous research indicated 56% of people who purchased a Kansas floatline fishing permit actually went floatline fishing.  The ideal situation would be for people to continue purchasing licenses and participating to avoid attrition or relapsing.  The objective was to develop a model to predict the likelihood of an angler to purchase a license based on his or her confirmed fishing participation, demographic variables, and other characteristics.  The model was developed from a group of people actively fishing who were interviewed by KDWPT staff at Kansas State Fishing Lakes during the 2010 Memorial Holiday weekend.  I was able to data mine KDWPT’s license files to determine their license purchasing patterns.  To test the model’s performance, I used respondents from the 2013 Kansas Licensed Angler Survey for which I had similar predictor variables.  Results of the model, including interpretation and its applications, will be discussed.  A model developed using participant behavior could provide a useful barometer for predicting future paid participation (i.e., license sales) and identify factors that contribute to an angler’s likelihood to lapse.