Phase Shifts in Fish Recruitment on the Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf

There is accumulating evidence for decade-scale phase shifts in the base of the food web on the Northeast U.S. continental shelf. However, less attention has been given to examining evidence for synchronized phase shifts in fish recruitment across multiple species. Here, in an analysis of stock assessment output and survey data, we test for phase shifts in the recruitment success of 18 commercially important fish species using an explicitly multivariate approach. We find strong evidence for shifts in fish recruitment that broadly coincide with those previously documented in lower trophic levels. We also find that a multispecies approach is critical in identifying these shifts. We examine the role of age-truncation in driving the observed patterns, and we investigate potential underlying environmental drivers.