Predicting Potential Asian Carp Spawning in the Tributaries and Nearshore of the Canadian Great Lakes Basin

Due to the potential for an Asian carp invasion in the Great Lakes, there is a focus on identifying areas of potential spawning in tributaries to the Canadian Great Lakes and methods to prevent successful spawning. We will focus on the hydrologic and temperature requirements of spawning to determine whether Asian carp eggs will stay suspended in the water column long enough for the eggs to hatch. Three-dimensional hydrodynamic models that recreate the turbulent flow conditions can test if carp eggs will stay suspended while including a temperature-dependent hatching model to determine when the eggs will hatch (Garcia et al. 2013). A new modelling method will be presented that is potentially more rigorous than previous tools, utilizing the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code created by the US Environmental Protection Agency. Preliminary results will identify a subset of tributaries to the Canadian Great Lakes tributaries that could be suitable for spawning. The results of the model will be used to identify potential spawning tributaries and evaluate possible management actions (e.g. barriers, altered flows) that could be used to prevent successful spawning.