Addressing Stakeholder Needs by Linking Physical and Biological Models to Predict Effects of Climate Change in the Yakima River Basin

In a proof-of-concept project, a USGS interdisciplinary team from WFRC, Columbia River Research Laboratory, Fort Collins Science Center and the Washington Water Science Center used decision analysis and structured decision making to develop a model that links climate, hydrologic, bioenergetics, social and economic models into a comprehensive framework for modeling and understanding the complex and interrelated effects of climate change and water management in the Yakima River Basin (YRB). A decision analysis workshop was held in July 2009, which brought together decision makers, stakeholders and USGS scientists. The group developed a conceptual framework to ensure that the USGS produces information useful to decision makers, and placed this work in the context of water management in YRB. The conceptual model developed by the workshop participants is capable of modeling (1) outcomes of interest, (2) potential effects of alternative water management strategies to provide meaningful information, and (3) is based on sound science and data. Some of the specific areas modeled include changes in stream flows and water temperatures; the effects of these physical changes on habitat, fish growth and population viability; and finally, how changes in fish populations impact the local economy and quality of life in the YRB.