On the Use of IPCC-Class Models to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Living Marine Resources

Climate models have progressed to a point where they can now be used to make Living Marine Resource (LMR) projections over multi-decadal time-scales.  However, uncertainty in climate model projections, coarse climate model resolution, and uncertainty in the mechanisms underlying LMR responses to climate limit the precision and reliability of these projections.  Multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, but the assumptions underlying these approaches must be critically assessed for each application.  Developments in LMR science that could improve projections include better understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and incorporation of these mechanisms within LMR models.  These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time-series and measurements over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales.  Priority climate model developments for LMR projections include improved model accuracy at regional scales, inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and continued development of earth system models that include the biosphere.  Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.