Infusing Climate Change Information into Biological Opinions and Assessments

The “best available scientific information” is the basis for determinations under in the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and also for conservation and management measures under the Magnuson-Stevens Act.  Agency policies also are calling for the consideration of climate change impacts in NEPA determinations.  Recent District Court rulings underscore the challenge for USFWS and NMFS to consider the impacts of climate change, as well as the need to use more comprehensive analytical methods. Questions addressed include: What is “best available” climate science, What will be the available from climate science community in the near future, and How can this information be used in decisions under ESA, NEPA, and the Magnuson-Stevens Act. Current thinking on how to use climate science will be explored, including a Decision Tree guiding incorporating climate change, recently developed by DOI.  In addition to a description of the decision tree assessment, three approaches to incorporating projections of future climate change and the associated uncertainties into resource management policy, planning, and decision making (probabilistic/statistical, scenario planning, and adaptive management) will be discussed and evaluated.