Surprise and Opportunity in Adaptive Management of the Grand Canyon Aquatic Ecosystem

The Grand Canyon adaptive management program has included a variety of experimental policy tests, ranging from manipulation of water releases from Glen Canyon Dam to removal of exotic fish.  None of these experiments has yet produced unambiguous results in terms of management prescriptions, due to inadequate monitoring programs and confounding of treatment effects with effects of ongoing natural changes.  But there have been surprising results relative to predictions from models developed at the start of the program; such surprises have been viewed with dismay by stakeholders who had unrealistic expectations about science and modeling to start with, yet actually represent scientific successes in terms of revealing new opportunities for developing better policies.