Performance of In-Season Harvest Management Strategies for the Yukon River Fall Chum Salmon Stock of Alaska

Salmon managers make daily harvesting decisions in the face of large uncertainties in salmon abundance, run timing, and the outcomes of management decisions.  We assessed the performance of different in-season harvest management strategies for the Yukon River fall chum salmon stock using management strategy evaluation. Specifically, we tested the influence of the degree of risk tolerance assumed by managers in prosecuting the fishery (e.g., how aggressively managers set fishery openings/closings). The degree of risk tolerance had only modest effects on fishery performance indicators such as average catch, probability of commercial closure, and average escapement, when integrated over all possible future run sizes.  However, effects were more pronounced in years when the pre-season forecast indicated a relatively small run.  In these cases, a risk averse manager would sacrifice substantial amounts of commercial and subsistence catch with small gains in escapement objectives.  Thus, managers and stakeholders should carefully consider whether lost fishing opportunities due to a risk averse in-season management approach are justified considering the expected gains in escapement objectives.