Forestry and Fisheries Through the End of the Century

Over the coming decades a variety of factors are likely to fundamentally alter the nature of forest management and impact the aquatic ecosystems within these landscapes.  These changes will be driven by a variety of factors including climate change, increasing population and the development of markets for ecosystem services.  Some of these changes may exacerbate environmental impacts on aquatic ecosystems but others have the potential to improve conditions.  Climate change is likely to shift the locations where high levels of wood production are possible and may also make aquatic habitats in some regions more sensitive to impacts associated with forest management.  Impacts to forests caused by climate change will be exacerbated by increased demand for wood driven by population increase and elevated standards of living in emerging economies.  Elevated fiber demand in the past has been addressed by increasing forest area managed for wood production.  However, this option will become less viable in the future owing to ongoing conversion of forests to non-forest land uses and increased designation of forests to meet environmental objectives.  Therefore, much of this increased demand must be met through increasing wood production on lands already dedicated to fiber production.  Increased management intensity, however, may create new challenges for the maintenance of aquatic habitats on these lands.  Markets for forest values other than wood have slowly begun to develop.  The most advanced example of such a market is for carbon credits.  It is conceivable that forest landowners in the future may be compensated for maintaining various environmental attributes of forests, thereby increasing the value of forest lands and reducing the rate of forest conversion.  Meeting all the demands placed on forests of the future will require the development of regional management strategies that designate stand-level management objectives based on productive potential and environmental sensitivity.