Application of Structured Decision Making for Climate Change Adaptation of Fisheries Management: A Case Study from Northern Minnesota

Contemporary climate records indicate significant trends in increasing temperature throughout Minnesota, with more rapid increases occurring at higher latitude.  Concurrently, a variety of fishery assessments indicate an increases in the presence and abundance of warmwater fish species in northeast MN, a region of the state historically dominated by cool and coldwater fish communities.  These community shifts are well documented in Fish Lake Reservoir near Duluth, MN.  Of considerable local concern are declines in walleye, the dominant, cool water piscivore that has been self-sustaining following its original introduction in to the system.  However, a synoptic analysis of the Fish Lake ecosystem indicates an entangled suite of changes that can be potential causal factors in the observed community shifts, including changes in water level management of the impoundment.  We are applying Structured Decision Making (SDM) to help inform the selection of best management responses to this challenge.  A core of local stakeholders have been central to the SDM process, as we fully disclose the structural uncertainties in the system and attempt to incorporate local values in the decision making process.  Our presentation will include a description of our first cycle through the “PrOACT” system for conducting SDM, leading to our initial candidate management actions.