Towards Predictability of Range Shifts and Their Effects on Fisheries

Shifting spatial distributions are some of the most commonly predicted impacts of climate change on marine fish and invertebrates, and the process has profound implications both for fisheries and their successful management. Whether these shifts are predictable, how to plan for them, and how fisheries respond to them remain important questions. Using four decades of research surveys on both Atlantic and Pacific continental shelves of North America, we tested whether the direction and magnitude of range shifts among nearly one hundred demersal fish and invertebrates could be predicted from climate trajectories, life history, and history of fishing. We find that range shifts vary substantially among species, but that local differences in climate velocity can explain otherwise surprising differences in direction and magnitude of shift. Life history traits explain additional variation among species, suggesting that future range shifts may be more predictable than previously thought. In a parallel analysis of fisheries landings, we find clear evidence that fisheries shift poleward as well, but lagged behind the species itself, likely slowed by a combination of regulatory and economic factors. More broadly, the results provide guidance for mechanistic modeling of species responses to climate change, the community consequences of these changes over large spatial scales, and their impacts on fisheries.