Climate and Fisheries: Responses of a Socio-Ecological System to Global Change

Tuesday, August 21, 2012: 8:00 AM-12:00 PM
Meeting Room 6 (RiverCentre)
Over the coming century, climate change is predicted to dramatically alter our oceans through ocean acidification, warming temperatures, altered ocean currents, and other changes. These changes will impact marine species and the food webs that support local and global fisheries. In parallel, human societies and the activities they pursue are projected to change dramatically. Population growth, rising gas prices, technology, and globalized economic markets will all affect the spatial and temporal patterns of fishing, the species they target, and the ways in which the social benefits of fisheries are distributed. How do these factors - social and ecological - work in concert and affect each other in a warming and souring ocean? In this session, we invite contributions that address the impacts of climate and societal trends on the future status of fish and fisheries, particularly those that address important feedbacks and coupling between social and ecological systems. We are particularly interested in work that addresses the ecological changes expected from climate change, the social changes over the next 50-100 years that will transform fisheries, and the ways in which social interactions can mitigate or amplify the effects of climate change. Will growing populations and warming waters drive large-scale fisheries declines or open new opportunities? What are the costs of these transitions and how to we plan for them? How do markets and societies deal with changing food webs and shifting ranges? How do we design individual incentives to facilitate adaptation to climate change? We anticipate that these approaches will be both theoretical and empirical, and we also hope to discuss pro-active approaches to manage fisheries and marine ecosystems in the face of these transformations.
Malin L. Pinsky and James Watson
Malin L. Pinsky and James Watson
Governing the Global Commons in the Face of Climate Change (Withdrawn)
8:00 AM
Projected Spatial Distributions for Eastern Bering Sea Arrowtooth Flounder Under Simulated Climate Scenarios, with Implications for Predation
Paul Spencer, NMFS - Alaska Fisheries Science Center; Nicholas Bond, University of Washington; Anne Hollowed, National Marine Fisheries Service; Franz J. Mueter, University of Alaska Fairbanks

8:15 AM
Clams on the Run. Climate Change and Range Shifts in the Atlantic Surfclam Populations: Implications for Fishery and Management
Daphne Munroe, Rutgers University; John Klinck, Old Dominion University; Eileen Hofmann, Old Dominion University; Roger Mann, Virginia Institute of Marine Science; Eric N. Powell, Rutgers University

8:30 AM
Towards Predictability of Range Shifts and Their Effects on Fisheries
Malin L. Pinsky, Princeton University; Michael Fogarty, National Marine Fisheries Service; Boris Worm, Dalhousie University; Jorge Sarmiento, Princeton University; Simon A. Levin, Princeton University

8:45 AM
Global Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Food Security: Projections from an Earth System Model
James Watson, Princeton University; Charles Stock, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab; Jorge Sarmiento, Princeton University; Simon A. Levin, Princeton University

9:00 AM
Making Harvest Control Rules Robust towards Environmental Variation and Perturbations
Anne Maria Eikeset, University of Oslo; Andries Richter, Oslo University; Nils Chr. Stenseth, University of Oslo

9:15 AM
Ecosystem Complexity Mitigates Climate Risk to Fishing Communities
Daniel Schindler, University of Washington; Jonathan Armstrong, University of Washington; Ray Hilborn, University of Washington

9:45 AM
Tuesday AM Break

10:15 AM
Predicting the Future Ocean: The Nereus Program
Villy Christensen, Nereus Program, University of British Columbia; Yoshitaka Ota, University of British Columbia

10:30 AM
Complex Feedbacks Between Fisheries, Food Security, and Civil Conflict
Sarah M. Glaser, Virginia Institute of Marine Science; Cullen S. Hendrix, College of William and Mary

10:45 AM
Social-Ecological Factors Influencing Responses of Fisheries to El Nino-Southern Oscillation Events (ENSO)
Sheila M Walsh, The Nature Conservancy; Octavio Aburto-Oropeza, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Gustavo Hinojosa Arango, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Alexandra Sanchez, Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Leila Sievanen, Brown University; Sriniketh Nagavarapu, Brown University; Heather Leslie, Brown University

Using Economic Information to Anticipate Collapses in Social-Ecological Systems (Withdrawn)
11:15 AM

12:00 PM
Poster P-73 Latitudinal Variation in Common Carp Populations Indicate Potential Responses . M. Weber, M. Brown, D. H. Wahl, and D. E. Shoup

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