Complex Feedbacks Between Fisheries, Food Security, and Civil Conflict

The effects of climate change on human security are frequently mediated through resource systems.  For example, where rain-fed agriculture contributes to regional food security, rainfall shocks can increase food prices, subsequently raising the risk of protests, riots, and even armed conflict.  In turn, civil conflict can place further stresses on both food prices and natural resources, creating a positive feedback. The reciprocal effects between civil conflict and fisheries are relatively unexamined.  We present a global analysis of civil conflict during 1952-2004 and demonstrate a significant negative impact on national fish catch reported to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. To elucidate the mechanisms behind this pattern, we conduct a case study of the fisheries in Lake Victoria, East Africa.  Time series for rainfall, fish catch and effort, fish and substitute food prices, and civil conflict are examined through a complex systems approach.  The effects of fish catch and effort on food security are amplified by civil conflict and mediated by the effects of rainfall on other agricultural commodities.  Given predictions of increased rainfall variability in Africa under scenarios of global climate change, such mechanisms point to possible actions by governments to ameliorate threats to food security.