Estimation of Management Uncertainty for Marine Fisheries in the Southeastern United States

With the recent reauthorization of the Magnuson-Stevens Act it has become essential to incorporate uncertainty in the process of setting annual catch limits (ACLs) and annual catch targets (ACTs).   The accuracy with which we predict catch can be thought of as management uncertainty and can be estimated by comparing pre-season to post-season catch estimates.  Management regulations are required to take into account management uncertainty, prescribing more precaution when management uncertainty is high.  This study compared pre-season catch estimates of managed fish species in the Southeast to post-season estimates and investigated whether the magnitude of management uncertainty appeared related to the type of fishery, regulation, or life history of the species involved.  Results indicate that the magnitude of management uncertainty may be greater than previously suggested.  It appears that recreational fisheries may have greater management uncertainty than commercial fisheries.  In addition, when pre-season catches are estimated years into the future, as is often the case, management uncertainty increases over the time series.  The study also revealed that documentation of methodology used to determine preseason catch estimates is often not sufficient to repeat the estimation procedure.  The results of this study will have important implications in the setting of future ACTs.