A Systems Mapping Approach for Assessing Vulnerability of Aquatic Systems to Climate Change

Shifts in the habitat conditions of lakes and rivers in Minnesota already reflect a changing climate, and predicted future climate change suggests greater changes are in store. However, uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions, global feedback loops, and model predictions makes specific quantitative predictions on future habitat conditions extremely difficult. With these limitations in mind, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources conducted a climate change vulnerability assessment of lake and river habitats using an expert-panel method using a technique called systems mapping. Experts in lake and river habitats in Minnesota from within and outside the department were convened to generate conceptual models of an agreed upon framework of lake and river habitats. These models, called system maps, identified key drivers for each system and included expert opinion on the relative influence as well as uncertainty of each driver. The results of the process will inform a subsequent assessment of sensitive species using those habitats. Additional advantages of utilizing this approach include greater buy-in of process participants that may increase the likelihood of adaptation implementation, reduced cost and time for assessing a wide variety of habitats, and an understanding of the key drivers that are expected to shape aquatic systems that will inform management adaptation to climate change.