The Potential Impact of Climate Change On Lake Whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) Recruitment in the Upper Great Lakes

Lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) is a culturally and economically important species to the Laurentian Great Lakes region and an indicator of ecosystem function.  Since 1980, lake whitefish have supported the most economically valuable (annual catch value ≈ US$16.6 million) and productive (annual harvest ≈15 million lbs.) commercial fishery in the upper Great Lakes (Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior).  Climate change is expected to impact the ecology, production dynamics, and value of this fishery because the success of recruitment to the fishery has been linked with climatic variables, including seasonal temperatures, storm intensity, and ice cover.  We used linear regression to determine the relationship between these climate variables and recruitment in the upper Great Lakes and used that relationship to project potential changes in lake whitefish recruitment with climate change.  Corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion comparisons indicate that seasonal water temperatures are the most influential climate variable on lake whitefish recruitment.  The relationship between seasonal water temperatures and lake whitefish recruitment has significant implications for the fishery in the context of climate change.  Warmer spring temperatures (zooplankton production) may increase the potential for lake whitefish production in the upper Great Lakes, but warmer winter temperatures (storm events) may inhibit it.