Finding Simplicity In Complexity: Matching Models To Data - Part 1

Monday, September 9, 2013: 1:00 PM-5:00 PM
Harris Brake (The Marriott Little Rock)
Ecological modeling techniques that link biological response with habitat conditions, whether mechanistic (e.g., bioenergetics) or statistical (e.g., regression), whether simple (e.g., correlation) or complex (e.g., individual-based), represent a toolbox that we can use to address research and fisheries problems.  Selecting a technique out of the toolbox should ideally be guided by the research or management question at hand; however, as certain techniques gain visibility and traction in the literature, or are touted as the ‘best available approach’, they are sometimes used without consideration of application potential or the tradeoffs between realism, precision, and generality.  We are organizing this symposium to generate discussion on modeling techniques, inviting presentations that pose one or more of the following questions: 1) What are the tradeoffs between model precision, realism and accuracy?, 2) Are mechanistic models better than statistical models for ecological forecasting?, 3) What can we learn from simple vs complex models?, 4) How useful are heuristic models?, and 5) How important is model validation and how do we use models that cannot be validated?  Following presentations, we will convene a panel that balances modelers and model users to address the overarching question – why would you use a certain kind of model for a certain research question or a management problem.
Nick Bond and Dale McNeil
Amanda Rosenberger
Daniel Magoulick
1:00 PM
Year Class Strength Estimation With Mixed Effect Linear Models
David Staples, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources; Donald Pereira, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources

1:40 PM
Optimal Model Complexity in Stock Assessment
Milo D. Adkison, University of Alaska

2:00 PM
Integrating Modeling, Monitoring, and Management to Reduce Critical Uncertainties in Water Resource Decision Making
James T. Peterson, USGS Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Mary C. Freeman, USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

2:20 PM
Evaluation of Individual-Based Models of Different Complexity Applied to a Site-Specific Resource Management Question
Bret C. Harvey, USDA Forest Service; Steven F. Railsback, Humboldt State University

2:40 PM
Evaluating Fish-Habitat Relationships in the Multiscale Stream Network
Jian Huang, Virginia Tech; Emmanuel A. Frimpong, Virginia Tech

3:00 PM
Monday PM Break

3:40 PM
Identifying Effective Water-Management Strategies in Variable Climates Using Population Dynamics Models
Nick Bond, Griffith University; Jian Yen, Monash University; Daniel Spring, Monash University; Ralph Mac Nally, Monash University

4:40 PM
Evaluation of a Nested Patch Occupancy Model Applied to PIT Tagged Salmon in a Branching River Network
Brice Semmens, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD; Lynn Waterhouse, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD; Jody White, Quantitative Consultants, Inc.; Chris Jordan, NOAA Fisheries Service

See more of: Symposium Proposals