A New Forecasting Model for the American Lobster Fishery Using the American Lobster Settlement Index

Accurate predictions of fishery recruitment represent the holy grail of fisheries

science and management. As is true for many lobster fisheries, spawner-recruit

relationships for the American lobster (Homarus americanus) in the northwest

Atlantic have been particularly elusive to science. Settler-recruit relationships,

that track cohorts after larvae have settled to the sea bed, have proven more

productive, however. Here we describe a fishery recruitment forecasting model

we are developing based on the American Lobster Settlement Index (ALSI),

a comprehensive annual diver-based survey that quantifies the abundance

of young-of-year lobsters as they populate coastal nurseries. . The model begins with

the settlement index to set initial year-class strength and subjects cohorts to

variable growth as determined by temperature regime, as well as proxies for

natural mortality, including predator abundance and shell disease prevalence.

Projections are validated against independent indicators of recruitment to the

fishery. This talk will describe our model development to date. We anticipate the

projection models such as this will contribute to the stock assessment process

and allow stakeholders to make informed decisions relating to the management

of this fishery.