An Assessment of Fish Vulnerability to Climate Change

Cyclic shifts in Pleistocene-Holocene climates are associated with freshwater fish expansions and homogenization during glacial humid climates and fish radiation and extirpation during interglacial arid climates within southern Great Plains and western Gulf Slope drainages of North America.  Study purposes were to quantify life-history attributes of arid-associated fishes (i.e., prairie stream and desert fishes) and use attributes as a mathematical filter to identify fishes in eastern and more humid gulf slope drainages that 1) are susceptible to future climate change, either natural or man-accelerated, and 2) are likely to persist under future climate change models, serving as stocks for subsequent glacial expansions.  Preliminary results suggest notable life-history attributes shared among arid-associated fishes include relatively small body size, young age of sexual maturation, short life-span, and broadcast spawning of eggs.  Forecasting eastern drainages (i.e., Neches, Sabine, and Calcasieu rivers), we identified 34 fishes among a total of 90 fishes that share life-history attributes with arid-associated fishes.  Our model can assist with prioritizing vulnerable fishes within eastern drainages for future conservation action but also prioritizing the 34 fishes for current conservation actions, helping to ensure future stocks are secured from current anthropogenic threats (e.g., instream habitat alteration, water quality, and water quantity).