Management Strategy Evaluation, Decision Analysis, and Ensemble Modeling: Tools for Addressing Assessment and Management Uncertainty (Symposium)

Monday, August 22, 2016: 9:40 AM-4:00 PM
Van Horn C (Sheraton at Crown Center)
This session will explore the use of management strategy evaluation (MSE), decision analysis and ensemble modeling for exploring the consequences of uncertainty in the provision of science advice for fisheries, protected species and ecosystem management.  The objective of this session is to provide working examples of best practices for using these methods to address current and emerging issues in fisheries management.  Complete implementation of the MSE process includes working with managers and stakeholder groups, specifying clear and measureable management goals, defining candidate management strategies and their strengths and weaknesses, discussing sources of error and uncertainty and their characteristics, describing alternative hypotheses and states of nature and their rationale, using tools for quantitative or qualitative simulation testing with feedback, assessing the performance of the management strategies based on pre-defined performance metrics, quantifying the tradeoffs between the management goals, and communicating methods and results to a range of audiences.  Ensemble model approaches capture more of the structural uncertainty associated with models and can inform the operating models and states of nature used in MSEs.  Speakers in this session will present case studies which use MSE or ensemble models for management advice for single stocks, and for more complex situations such as spatial models and multi-species or ecosystem models.  Talks that include social and economic outcomes are encouraged.
Moderator:
Teresa A'mar
Chair:
Richard D. Methot Jr.
Organizers:
Richard D. Methot Jr. and Teresa A'mar
9:40 AM
Welcoming Remarks
9:40 AM
Using Time-Varying Asymptotic Length and Body Condition of Top Piscivores to Indicate Ecosystem Regime Shift in the Main Basin of Lake Huron: A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach Ji X. He, Lake Huron Research Station; James R. Bence, Quantitative Fisheries Center; Edward F. Roseman, USGS Great Lakes Science Center; David G. Fielder, Alpena Fishery Research Station; Mark P. Ebener, Inter-Tribal Fisheries and Assessment Program
10:00 AM
Simulation-Based Evaluation of Assessment Approaches for Intermixing Fish Populations Yang Li, Quantitative Fisheries Center; James R. Bence, Quantitative Fisheries Center; Travis O. Brenden, Quantitative Fisheries Center; Matthew Vincent, Quantitative Fisheries Center
10:20 AM
Sensitivity of a Multisystem Length Limit Model Andrew Shamaskin, Mississippi State University; Michael Colvin, Mississippi State University; Leandro E. Miranda, U.S. Geological Survey, Mississippi Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
10:40 AM
11:00 AM
Conservation and Yield Performance of Harvest Control Rules for the Transboundary Pacific Hake Fishery in U.S. and Canadian Waters Allan Hicks, International Pacific Halibut Commission; Sean P. Cox, Simon Fraser University; Nathan Taylor, Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada; Ian Taylor, National Marine Fisheries Service; Chris Grandin, Fisheries & Oceans Canada Pacific Biological Station; James Ianelli, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
11:20 AM
Management Strategy Evaluation to Compare Sampling Programs in the Southeastern U.S Michael J. Wilberg, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science; Erik H. Williams, NOAA Fisheries Service; George Halliwell, NOAA; Christopher Kelble, NOAA
11:40 AM
Monday Lunch Break
1:20 PM
Performance of Catch-Only Models at Providing Management Guidance for Unassessed Data-Limited Fish Stocks Jessica Walsh, Simon Fraser University; Sean Anderson, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA; Coilin Minto, Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology; Ernesto Jardim, European Commission Joint Research Center; James Thorson, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA; Olaf Jensen, Rutgers University; Catherine Longo, Marine Stewardship Council; Jamie Afflerbach, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis; Kristin Kleisner, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA; Giacomo Chato Osio, European Commission Joint Research Center; Mark Dickey-Collas, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES); Elizabeth Selig, Norwegian Institute for Water Research; Katherine Papacostas, Conservation International; John (Jack) Kittinger, Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science and Oceans, Conservation International; Andrew Rosenberg, Union of Concerned Scientists; Andrew Cooper, Seattle Children's Hospital
1:40 PM
Quantitative Decision-Support Tools for Dam Passage Performance Standards in the Northeast US Dan Stich, State University of New York College at Oneonta; Timothy F. Sheehan, NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service; Joseph D. Zydlewski, U.S. Geological Survey: Maine Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
2:20 PM
Efficiency of the Maine Lobster Fishery Mackenzie Mazur, University of Maine; Yong Chen, University of Maine
2:40 PM
Discussion
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