Management Strategy Evaluation, Decision Analysis, and Ensemble Modeling: Tools for Addressing Assessment and Management Uncertainty (Symposium)
Management Strategy Evaluation, Decision Analysis, and Ensemble Modeling: Tools for Addressing Assessment and Management Uncertainty (Symposium)
Sponsored By: Marine Fisheries Section
Monday, August 22, 2016: 9:40 AM-4:00 PM
Van Horn C (Sheraton at Crown Center)
This session will explore the use of management strategy evaluation (MSE), decision analysis and ensemble modeling for exploring the consequences of uncertainty in the provision of science advice for fisheries, protected species and ecosystem management. The objective of this session is to provide working examples of best practices for using these methods to address current and emerging issues in fisheries management. Complete implementation of the MSE process includes working with managers and stakeholder groups, specifying clear and measureable management goals, defining candidate management strategies and their strengths and weaknesses, discussing sources of error and uncertainty and their characteristics, describing alternative hypotheses and states of nature and their rationale, using tools for quantitative or qualitative simulation testing with feedback, assessing the performance of the management strategies based on pre-defined performance metrics, quantifying the tradeoffs between the management goals, and communicating methods and results to a range of audiences. Ensemble model approaches capture more of the structural uncertainty associated with models and can inform the operating models and states of nature used in MSEs. Speakers in this session will present case studies which use MSE or ensemble models for management advice for single stocks, and for more complex situations such as spatial models and multi-species or ecosystem models. Talks that include social and economic outcomes are encouraged.
Moderator:
Teresa A'mar
Chair:
Richard D. Methot Jr.
Organizers:
Richard D. Methot Jr. and Teresa A'mar
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